KEY OPPORTUNITIES

            The President and his campaign ground their intensified effort in a candid acknowledgement of their current disadvantages. Trump is running ahead in the six battleground states. Biden’s approval ratings remain stubbornly low. Legal decisions convicting or otherwise disqualifying Trump are likely to be delayed until after the election, if they come at all. Southern Border chaos is laid at Biden’s door. How can he turn things around, converting the threat to opportunities? My advice would be to seize two opportunities: hammering Trump’s criminality and authoritarianism; and contrasting Biden’s healing vision and power.

            Naming and Shaming

            There are many reasons Trump has kept his gig going for so long. He’s a veteran manipulator of the media and the courts. He’s telegenic, charismatic and fast on his feet. (Just think back to the ways he out-maneuvered Republican rivals and then Hillary Clinton in 2016 TV debates.) As a political and governmental outsider, he is consistently underestimated by Beltway veterans. As a pathological narcissist who earned his chops in the anything-goes Manhattan commercial real estate business, he is totally dedicated to winning, with no compunction to obey the truth or the law. As a millionaire with deep pockets, he understands that his legal guilt will never be finalized if he can keep stringing out appeals. As a polished grifter, he understands that his supporters (including Evangelicals) will forgive him his most outrageous misconduct as long as he keeps on assuring them that they’ve been unfairly disadvantaged and he’s going to put them back on top.

            This is not politics as usual – right vs. left, challenger vs. incumbent. This is a man who longs to be a divisive dictator. To win back personal power, he is deliberately promoting cancerous polarization. To regain the top government office, he’s perversely prepared to discredit and demolish the entire democratic structure. One revealing signal is Trump’s roster of role models: Putin, Kim and Xi. Think of their treatment of “dissidents”; their tolerance of democratic pluralism.

            Candidate Biden must unambiguously call Trump out. Reiterating Trump’s own deeds and words to pin down his criminality and systemic threat. President Biden’s sworn duty “to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution” requires him to hold Trump legally responsible for and alert the citizens to his felonies: attempting to overturn the 2020 federal election, intimidating state election officials into altering ballot tallies, mustering false alternate electors, and inciting an insurrection. Biden’s recent Valley Forge speech was a beginning. It should not be an exception. This is not partisan persecution; it’s protecting our nation against domestic terrorism. (Timothy McVeigh used crude explosives. Subtler Trump employs disinformation and legal obstructionism. Both attacked governmental structures to shake citizens’ trust and confidence.)

            That said, we should not be surprised by this Artful Dodger’s wily self-defense. It has already been launched. He’s started trumpeting that Biden, not he, is threatening democracy. (Remember when he tried to steal the 2020 election and then accused Biden of “The Big Steal”? Flipping accusations muddies the waters and wearies voters.  Trump is also a master of false equivalence. Lowering the bar of officials’ conduct by pretending that his opponents have committed comparable offenses; e.g., pressuring House Republicans to launch groundless, tit-for-tat impeachment proceedings against Biden. And his successful efforts to prolong judicial proceedings with motions and appeals, delaying criminal convictions. Meanwhile deriding and discrediting criminal prosecutions as personal persecution. A fraudster is never going to let up if the rest of us let him get away with his cons. Biden can’t mince words. (He must be careful, however, not to violate Trump’s presumption of innocence.) In parallel, the prosecutors and judges can’t abandon their proceedings, even in the face of death threats to themselves and their families. Defense by intimidation is a familiar strategy of Mafia dons.

            Promoting Bilateral Partnership

            Biden’s second opportunity is to demonstrate his own sober, seasoned leadership and positivity, in dramatic contrast to his opponent’s systemic destructiveness. This demonstration can confirm Biden’s creative energy, tacitly refuting the criticism that he’s too old for the job. Equally important and simultaneously, it can start reducing the country’s dysfunctional polarization. A pivot to bipartisan collaboration can offer a lifeline to demoralized voters, giving them someone and something to vote for, instead of staying home in disgust. It’s also a natural fit with the President’s personal strengths and instincts. He’s a productive Chief Executive and Commander-in-Chief, not a bitter loser. A seasoned centrist, not an aggrieved extremist. A career public servant, not a scheming narcissist. In terms of tone, the contrast is adult equanimity vs. adolescent rage. Biden is earnest and experienced but bland. There’s no way he’s going to out-demagogue his charismatic opponent by exchanging extremist salvoes. Trump already controls and inflames his right-wing base. At the opposite end of the political spectrum, progressive activists only make things worse for the campaigning President, alienating moderates and Independents with strident summons to the culture wars. Biden’s comfort zone, on style as well as substance, is mainstream. Bipartisanship is in his resume. He should boldly counter infectious cynicism by reaching out to patriotic, risk-ready conservatives. Fortune favors the brave.

            A Beguiling Brainstorm

            When formulating this reconciliation proposal in late December, I was vain enough to think I’d identified an ingenious break-through: As soon as Trump’s Super-Tuesday (March-5) primaries sweep convinces Nikki Haley she cannot overtake the frontrunner, Biden should offer her the Vice Presidential slot on his ticket.  Not by forcing her to switch her party affiliation. To the contrary, respectfully encouraging her to remain a Republican and join him in break-through, bipartisan leadership. At one stroke, he’d command headlines for innovative problem-solving. He’d tap the energy of an increasingly popular member of the younger generation. (And a minority woman.) Haley’s professional background was perfect for a centrist contribution: business owner, State Representative, UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor. What could she gain from accepting the offer? Retained national prominence and a reputation for pragmatism, without having to humiliatingly beg Trump for forgiveness for having dared to contest his nomination.

            I was aware, of course, that Kamala Harris held a virtual veto. She couldn’t be expected to surrender her announced place on the Democratic ticket as long as she held out hope of being elected (and perhaps stepping up to the presidency if Biden were to ail.) This substitution scenario would only persuade her if the Biden/Harris campaign’s own internal polling clearly forecast that a Trump victory was increasingly certain. If that prerequisite could be satisfied, there might be another prestigious position she could accept, in addition to earning national praise for patriotism and self-sacrifice. The President appoints the Chief Justice of the California-based, 9^th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals. As an alternative placement, he might be able to convince Governor Newsom to appoint Harris Chief Justice of the California Supreme Court.

            Alas, almost as soon as I began fantasizing about a transformative Haley elevation, she critically stumbled in New Hampshire. Civil War history is a treacherous minefield. But a former Governor of South Carolina could not be seen to ignore and then downplay the significance of slavery. Even though gaffes are daily occurrences in national politics, I reluctantly concluded that my cross-over candidate had just forfeited her eligibility for my bipartisan dream ticket.

            A Creative Coalition

            Even without Governor Haley as running-mate, bipartisan collaboration can be an effective antidote to threatening dictatorship. There are numerous concerned Republican leaders, in addition to Haley, who might rally to the President’s call to join a National Taskforce on “Working Together.” High-profile Chris Christie has just become available. Senators Collins, Murkowski and Romney are nationally well-known and respected. Former Representatives Cheney and Kizinger deserve recognition for standing up to hold Trump accountable. Governors DeWine and Hogan enjoy reputations for bipartisan problem-solving. Many of these leaders are retiring or retired, but that security insulates them from Trump’s vindictive wrath. And speaking of wrath, Biden should recruit top-level military generals who attempted but failed to discourage Trump from impulsive foreign overtures. Joining these public-sector veterans, private-sector luminaries like Mike Blumenthal and Jamie Dimon are dynamic change-agents. As a senior myself, I’m more familiar with older leaders. But dozens of outstanding younger Republicans are also available. An even more comprehensive coalition should include respected Independents, in addition to centrist Democrats and Republicans. Time is short for mounting this major initiative. But it would only have to launched, not fully operational, before November 5, in order to register an affirmative impact. To ensure recruits and voters that the Taskforce was not to fade into another interminable talking shop, the President could pledge to introduce legislation based on its policy proposals in his second term.

            Adding articulate Republican voices to the President’s reconstructive proposals can pump up their energy and persuasiveness. Biden and Harris are never going to be telegenic. Expand the chorus. Share the limelight. Accept, even encourage, differences of emphasis within the coalition.

                       As a bonus, bipartisan collaboration in November could help breach Congressional paralysis. There are razor-thin margins in the Senate as well as the House. If only a handful of candidates, from both parties, were to publically commit to supporting a Creative Bipartisanship agenda, first steps could be taken to renew legislative productivity.

            With or without a Taskforce, Biden should champion bipartisan policy breakthroughs on his own. Voters are exhausted and disheartened by governmental dysfunction. The main source of this crippling inertia is not the insolubility of economic or political problems. It’s fervid, ideological rigidity, enforced and exacerbated by conflict-promoting Trump. Here’s a sampling of headline logjams overdue for bipartisan liberation:

• Immigration reform. Contrary to Trump rants, this is not a liberal conspiracy. Comprehensive reform’s most dedicated champions have included arch-conservative Senators Hatch and McCain, as well as both Presidents Bush. The complexity of the challenge invites counter-balancing components in a bipartisan package: upgrading Southern-Border security; expediting asylum hearings for persecuted refugees (America’s obligation under international law); apprehending and deporting most economic migrants who cross illegally; granting Dreamers a path to citizenship; expanding and expediting skilled-worker visas; and protecting the health and safety of agricultural and other seasonal guest-workers. With a rapidly declining birthrate and job-openings twice the level of citizen applicants, America needs more, not fewer, qualified immigrants.

• A balanced Climate-change package could combine carbon-pricing to incentivize fossil-fuel reductions with subsidies and grid-expansion to accelerate substitution of renewables. Complementary mitigation measures could help prepare American communities for coastal flooding, wildfires, drought and other extreme-weather devastation.

• Successful Homelessness solutions have been designed and implemented by local Republican leaders in Houston and Democratic counterparts in Newark. These cities’ vigilant, coordinated program management combines safe housing with medical care and re-employment facilitation. Meanwhile, Austin is leading a national movement to construct and manage tiny-house villages. There is no shortage of field-tested, apolitical innovations for adoption and adaptation.

• Needed and already funded Infrastructure upgrading is an obvious candidate for bipartisan support. Federal initiatives should include fast-tracking regulatory approvals, job-training and prioritizing heartland site selection.

• Now that the Trump-dominated Supreme Court has invalidated a Constitutional right to Abortion, there is room for bipartisan leadership to respect the deep-seated concerns of advocates on both sides of this issue. For example, a national statutory right to abortion through 20 weeks of pregnancy might be enacted, leaving individual states to regulate termination of later-term pregnancies.

• Effective International Relations policies can be crafted to win bipartisan support. Between ill-advised poles of reckless isolationism and military adventurism, there is solid scope for supporting NATO’s and Ukraine’s defense, plus even-handed recovery assistance to Israel and Palestine. So also with balanced China relations: protecting America’s national-security interests and Asia-Pacific allies; competing for international trade and investment; and cooperating to lead worldwide pollution reduction for climate-change mitigation.

            All of these illustrations of creative collaboration can be win/win compromises, with buy-ins for both conservatives and liberals. None offer unilateral red or blue victories. Sustainable policy-making is balanced and incremental.  Cooperation can lead to consensus. And consensus is the most democratic foundation for decisions. A bold Biden push for bipartisan cooperation can give disengaged voters a positive alternative to Trump’s slash-and-burn negativity. To cast affirmative ballots, they must have hope in place of fear. They can be helped to see that, in the real world, their citizens’ choice is not between cult indoctrination and despairing abdication. It’s between stability and chaos, progress and paralysis, democratic partnership and domineering dictatorship.

            Here’s one more potential benefit from promoting a positive list of bipartisan initiatives. We often assume that the 2024 election will be all about personalities: Trump’s destructiveness, Biden’s deterioration. But young voters are going to be key. And there’s ample evidence that youngsters care more about issues than institutions (parties) or personalities (candidates.) Restoring women’s abortion access is their current chief public-policy objective.  They’re anti-Establishment but still holding out hope for a responsive democratic system.

            Biden should seize his paired opportunities with focus and realism. Trump’s loyal base is never going to be swayed. This election is a battle for swing-state Independents and undecideds. That’s a precarious concentration. Although Trump lost the 2020 election by the huge margin of seven million popular votes, if he’d flipped merely 44,000 total votes in three swing states, he would be our current president.

WHAT’S COMING NEXT?

            The 2024 presidential election has not yet been decided. Ten months out, the situation remains too fluid, too many variables still in the air. Sure, it’s highly discouraging that the race remains a toss-up in the key battleground states. But there’s plenty of time remaining for the Fat Lady to sing. Here’s a mini-calendar of a half-dozen influential milestones worth election-watchers’ attention:

• The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to fast-track its review of the Colorado Supreme Court’s disqualification of candidate Trump from that state’s Republican primary, on 14th Amendment grounds. Arguments are scheduled for February 8, with a decision expected before March 5. If the Court overturns the Colorado ruling and affirms Trump’s right to remain on this and other state ballots, Trump will typically exaggerate the scope of this decision, while opponents rush to interpret it narrowly.

• Other ongoing criminal prosecutions of Trump in Washington, D.C., Georgia, Florida and New York may inflict cumulative, drip-by-drip damage to his electability, even if he succeeds in delaying final judgments until after November 5.

• Watch the total delegate count emerging from the 25 Republican state primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday, March 5. If, as expected, Trump collects enough delegates to wrap up the nomination, almost all Republican officeholders, including even his presidential rivals, are likely to rush to endorse him.

• Two days later, on March 7, President Biden will deliver his State of the Union Address to a joint session of Congress. He will have to react to Super Tuesday. Watch how he tries to regain momentum.

• Throughout 2024, flaring foreign-affairs crises could inflict campaign complications on both candidates, but especially the President and Commander-in-Chief. The Southern Border migrant surge is currently most pressing. Ukraine/Russia and a widening Middle East conflict are also on the front burner. Other hostilities affecting American security interests could also erupt without warning.

• During this stressful season, either or both candidates could suffer a debilitating health incident.

          Bottom line: At this stage, no one can confidently predict how this contest is going to play out. But its impact will be seismic. It’s going to change our lives.

With thanks to Nancy Swing for her photos